The crypto community’s favorite month, “Uptober,” is living up to its name with a massive surge that has propelled the entire crypto market value past $4.35 trillion this week. On Monday, the rally reached a fever pitch as Bitcoin (BTC) smashed its previous all-time high over the weekend, peaking at $126,080 before settling near $124,100. Ethereum (ETH) also capitalized on the momentum, sailing past the $4,500 mark.
Institutional Inflows and US Government Shutdown
Despite a slight cooling today—with Bitcoin falling about 2.5% to $122,000—the overall bullish trajectory remains intact. Analysts note the rally comes amid a peculiar confluence of events, including the US federal government shutdown which began on October 1. Rather than causing panic, the political uncertainty appears to have accelerated a “debasement trade,” with investors flocking to hard assets as traditional markets like the S&P 500 show signs of wobbling.
This year’s surge is underpinned by significant institutional validation. Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have collectively gobbled up over $70 billion in inflows since January 2025, cementing cryptocurrencies as a mainstream investment vehicle. Last week alone saw $3.24 billion flood into Bitcoin ETFs—the second-largest weekly inflow on record. Bitcoin’s market capitalization briefly topped $2.5 trillion, making it one of the world’s most valuable assets.
A Look at “Uptober” History
Optimists have history on their side: Bitcoin has closed October in positive territory 10 out of the last 12 years, representing an 83% success rate, with average monthly gains historically ranging between 14% and 22%.
Technical Indicators Show Strength But Signal Caution
While the price action is strong, technical indicators are flashing a few yellow flags, suggesting the rally may be nearing a point of exhaustion.
Moving Averages: Bitcoin is comfortably trading above its key moving averages, with the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) trending higher around the $100,000 zone. This configuration suggests the long-term bullish structure remains robust.
Momentum Check: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 61, which is in the upper-neutral zone. While not yet "overbought" (above 70), this proximity indicates that continued buying momentum could soon trigger profit-taking.
Trend Strength Waning: The Average Directional Index (ADX), which measures the strength of a trend, is hovering around 24 points in the weekly setup. This just barely scrapes into "trending" territory and suggests that while the move has been sharp, the underlying conviction may be starting to wane.The critical question remains: Can Bitcoin push toward the psychological $130,000 level, or are traders set to take profits after a record-breaking “Uptober” start?
